• Jun 22, 2024

EUR/USD Latest – ECB Set to Cut Rates Next Week Despite Rising German Inflation

The European Central Bank (ECB) is gearing up for a potential interest rate cut next week, signaling a proactive stance despite a recent uptick in German inflation. Preliminary data for May revealed a modest increase in annual inflation to 2.4%, in line with market expectations. However, monthly inflation figures fell short, rising by just 0.1% compared to expectations of 0.2%. The final results are slated for release on June 12.


Financial markets are currently pricing in a high probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with over 90% certainty. Moreover, expectations extend to a second cut by October 17, possibly followed by a third reduction in December. This proactive approach from the ECB contrasts with the anticipation of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, with the ECB likely to initiate rate cuts before its US counterpart.


Despite the inflationary pressure, the Euro exhibited minimal reaction, hovering within a narrow 32-pip range against the US dollar. The subdued market activity is attributed to the anticipation surrounding the release of US Core PCE data later in the week, dampening volatility in the foreign exchange markets.


Retail trader sentiment analysis reveals a mixed bias among traders regarding the EUR/USD pair. While 41.46% of traders are net-long, the ratio of short to long positions stands at 1.41 to 1. Contrarian trading strategies, which often go against prevailing sentiment, suggest a potential upside for the EUR/USD pair. However, the fluctuating positioning data underscores a nuanced trading environment, emphasizing the importance of considering technical and fundamental factors in decision-making.


As market dynamics evolve, the question arises: Is the Euro poised for a bullish or bearish trajectory? 

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